Free Calculator Updated May 2026 Educational Only

Investment Return Simulator

Compare two investment scenarios side by side. Test how contribution amount, time horizon or return rate changes the outcome, with nominal and real (inflation adjusted) values plus best/worst case bands.

Quick Answer

What could my investment be worth in 10 years?

A future balance adds the growth of each monthly payment for the time it remains invested. The return assumption has a large effect. Investing $500 a month for ten years contributes $60,000. At an annual return of 7%, it grows to about $86,000. At 4%, it grows to about $73,000. The free StockEducation Investment Return Simulator shows contributed money and estimated growth in a chart and table for the period selected. Markets do not rise at a steady rate, and taxes and fees reduce results, so each figure is a scenario rather than a prediction.

Reviewed by Charles Lo — Academic Reviewer Last reviewed
🔄Two Scenarios 📊Best vs Worst Case 💸Inflation Adjusted 📅Year by Year
Dr. Charles Lo
Dr. Charles Lo, CPA, PhD Part-Time Educator at the University of Sydney · Formerly at Charles Sturt University · Now at Wentworth Institute 🔗 LinkedIn
Last reviewed 19 May 2026 Reviewed annually
Formula shown FV = PMT x [((1+r)^n – 1) / r]
Free, educational Not financial advice
↓ INVESTMENT RETURN SIMULATOR ↓
↓ Investment Return Simulator ↓
Investment Return Simulator
FREE · NO SIGN-UP

Investment Return Simulator

Project one savings plan or compare two contribution scenarios side by side using return, inflation and time-period assumptions.

Scenario 1
1
How much you plan to invest each period.
2
Choose whether contributions are monthly or yearly.
3
Estimated annual investment return before inflation.
4
Used to estimate future value in today’s money.
Scenario 2
1
Use this to compare a higher or lower contribution plan.
2
Choose monthly or yearly contributions for Scenario 2.
3
Test a different return assumption against Scenario 1.
4
Usually kept the same unless comparing different assumptions.

5
The longer the period, the more compounding can matter.
What this means for you

Set up your scenario and click Simulate My Growth to see projected returns, inflation-adjusted value and a year-by-year breakdown.

Scenario 1 Final Value
Scenario 1 You Put In
Scenario 2 Final Value
Scenario 2 You Put In

Portfolio Growth Over Time

Scenario 1Scenario 2

Scenario 1 Best and Worst Case

Lower Returns
As Expected
Higher Returns

Scenario 1 vs Scenario 2

Scenario 1
today’s value · profit
Scenario 2
today’s value · profit

Year-by-Year Breakdown

YearS1 ValueS1 Today’s $S1 InvestedS1 ProfitS2 ValueS2 Today’s $S2 Profit
Click Simulate to see projections

Important calculator disclosure

General education only — check the assumptions before using the result.

Purpose: This calculator is a general educational tool that performs a numerical calculation from the values you enter. It does not recommend, advertise or promote a specific financial product.

Assumptions: The calculation uses the input values and assumptions displayed in the calculator. Default values are illustrative starting points, not forecasts. Change each non-statutory assumption so it matches the scenario you want to test.

Limitations: Actual market returns, prices, dividends, interest rates, fees, tax, inflation and timing may differ from the assumptions. The calculator may omit factors relevant to you. Small input changes can materially change the result, so the output is an illustration rather than a prediction.

This financial calculator is not intended to be relied on for the purposes of making a decision in relation to a financial product. You should consider obtaining advice from a financial services licensee before making any financial decisions.

You can print this page or save it electronically using your browser controls. See ASIC Instrument 2026/41 for the conditions applying to generic financial calculators.

Educational content only. Projections assume constant annual returns and inflation. They do not reflect actual market variability, fees, taxes or sequence of returns risk. Use as a planning guide only and confirm with a qualified financial adviser.

$500 per month for 5 years at 8% annual return grows to $36,738 nominal, which is about $32,471 in today’s dollars after 2.5% inflation. Doubling to $1,000/month produces $73,477. The simulator runs two scenarios side by side so you can compare contribution levels, return assumptions or time horizons. Best and worst case bands show the sensitivity to return rate variation.

📐 Learn the math See the formula and assumptions 📊 See worked examples Verified scenarios with real numbers 💰 Compound Interest Calculator Single scenario detailed projection

How to use the investment return simulator

Compare two contribution scenarios, nominal vs real, in three steps.

1

Set Scenario 1 inputs

Contribution amount, frequency (monthly or yearly), expected growth rate, inflation rate and projection period.

2

Set Scenario 2 inputs

Change one variable at a time to isolate its effect. Common comparisons: double contribution, longer horizon, higher rate.

3

Read both scenarios, best/worst case bands and nominal vs real

The result panel shows Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 final values, a What This Means For You summary, best/worst case bands, a Portfolio Growth Over Time chart, a Scenario 1 vs Scenario 2 comparison, and a Year-by-Year Breakdown. Always read the inflation-adjusted (“in today’s money”) figure alongside the headline value — they can diverge by a third or more over 20+ years.

Walkthrough chapters

A four-stage written walkthrough — the chapters a video would cover, available now in text.

How to use the Investment Return Simulator

Four chapters covering inputs, outputs and the common mistakes to avoid.

0:00 Setting Scenario 1 1:15 Comparing to Scenario 2 2:30 Best and worst case bands 3:15 Nominal vs real reading

4 min watch. Auto captions available. Walkthrough chapters listed above.

Why use this investment return simulator

Specific outcomes, not generic claims.

🔄

A/B test your plan

Stop guessing whether $500 or $1,000 monthly gets you to your target. See the comparison in dollars.

🌪️

See the range

Best and worst case bands show how sensitive your outcome is to small changes in return rate.

💸

Real vs nominal

Most calculators show nominal dollars. The simulator translates to real purchasing power, which is what matters for planning.

The math behind the projection

Most calculators hide the formula. We show it because understanding the math is the point.

📐 Formula

Future value of an annuity formula with inflation adjustment.

FV = PMT × [((1 + r)n − 1) / r] · Real FV = FV / (1 + Inflation)n
FV future value in nominal dollars · PMT contribution per period · r return rate per period · n number of periods · Real FV future value in today’s purchasing power
The annuity formula projects forward each contribution. Best and worst cases apply +/-3 percentage points to the central return assumption. Real value divides by cumulative inflation to express the result in today’s dollars.

What this calculator assumes vs reality

The projection is a mathematical model, not a forecast. Six assumptions baked into the math, plus what real outcomes look like.

⚠️ Six assumptions to know about

Each card pairs an assumption the calculator makes with what real world investing actually looks like.

Constant return rate

Reality: Real returns are volatile. The smooth projection is an average, not a sequence.

Uniform inflation

Reality: Different cost categories inflate at different rates. CPI is an average.

Contributions never miss

Reality: Job loss or major life events interrupt savings, especially in downturns.

No tax during accumulation

Reality: Taxable accounts are taxed on dividends and capital gains annually.

No fees

Reality: Fund expense ratios and platform fees reduce net returns.

Best/worst case bands are illustrative

Reality: The +/-3pp band is a rough range, not a probability distribution.

Net effect on long run outcomes: Use scenario comparison to isolate the effect of one variable. Use best/worst bands to stress test whether your plan survives mediocre returns. Real values matter more than nominal for any horizon over 10 years.

How small input changes shift the result

Same base scenario, one variable changed at a time. The projection is highly sensitive to small changes.

Scenario Scenario Period Final value vs base
S1: $500/mo, 8%$5005y$36,738 nominalBase
S2: $1,000/mo, 8%$1,0005y$73,477 nominal+100%
S1 best case (11%)$5005y$39,759 nominal+8%
S1 worst case (5%)$5005y$34,003 nominal-7%
S1 real (2.5% inflation)$5005y$32,471 today’s $-12%
S1 over 10 years$50010y$91,473 nominal+149%
The pattern: Contribution amount scales linearly. Return rate variation produces relatively narrow bands over short horizons (5 years) but widens substantially over long horizons. Inflation eats roughly 12% of value over 5 years at 2.5%, and 23% over 10 years. Always check the real number for long horizons.

Realistic return ranges by asset class

The calculator assumes a smooth return every year. Here is how that compares to verified historical data.

Source Average annual return Outcome
US large cap equity (S&P 500)~10% nominal / 7% real long runHigher volatility, higher long run return
US small cap equity~11% nominal / 8% real long runHigher volatility, slight premium
Investment grade bonds~4 to 5% nominal / 1 to 2% realLower volatility, lower long run return
60/40 balanced portfolio~7 to 8% nominal / 4 to 5% realMiddle ground, common retirement mix
Cash and short term bonds~3 to 4% nominal / 0 to 1% realLowest volatility, lowest long run return
The key insight: Match your assumed return to your actual portfolio mix. A 100% equity portfolio can defensibly use 8 to 10% nominal. A 60/40 portfolio should use 6 to 7%. A bond heavy retirement portfolio uses 4 to 5%. Using a higher rate than your actual mix supports is the most common planning error and produces optimistic projections that do not hold up.

Investment return simulation, everything you need to know

Written by Dr. Charles Lo, Associate Professor, CPA. Reviewed annually.

Return simulation projects how a contribution stream grows under a chosen rate and time horizon. The math is the future value of an annuity formula, applied period by period. Two scenarios run side by side make it easy to test how changes in any single variable affect the outcome.

Best and worst case bands handle the obvious objection that real returns are not constant. By applying plus and minus three percentage points to the central return, you see a range that captures most realistic outcomes. This is not a Monte Carlo simulation; it is a simpler stress test.

Real value (inflation adjusted) is the number that matters for long horizon planning. A $1M nominal projection in 30 years at 3% inflation is worth roughly $412k in today’s purchasing power. Always check both nominal and real numbers before drawing conclusions.

How to set your assumed return rate

Use 6 to 8% nominal for diversified equity heavy portfolios, 5 to 6% for 60/40 balanced, 4 to 5% for bond heavy. The lower the assumed rate, the more robust the plan if reality matches the historical average.

Use 2.5 to 3% inflation as a reasonable default. Higher if you live in a high inflation environment; lower if recent disinflation persists.

Common mistakes

  • Comparing nominal and real numbers. Always compare like with like.
  • Using one optimistic rate. Best/worst bands show what changes if returns disappoint.
  • Ignoring inflation on long horizons. 20 to 30 years of inflation cuts purchasing power roughly in half.
  • Changing multiple variables at once. Change one at a time to isolate the effect.
  • Assuming returns are constant. Even average returns come with significant year to year variation.
  • Ignoring fees and tax. Net returns are typically 1 to 2 percentage points below gross.

How to interpret your result

Compare Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 final values. The difference quantifies the effect of whatever you changed. If the gap is small, the variable does not matter much for your horizon.

Always read the real value alongside the nominal. For horizons over 10 years, real value is the more honest planning number.

Worked examples

Real numbers calculated from the same formula as the live tool. Every figure below is verified, not approximated.

Contribution comparison

S1: $500/mo, S2: $1000/mo, both 8%, 5 years, 2.5% inflation

Test whether doubling monthly contribution doubles the outcome.

Result: S1 nominal $36,738 (real $32,471). S2 nominal $73,477 (real $64,943). Exact doubling because the only difference is contribution.

Time horizon comparison

Both $500/mo at 8%. S1: 5y, S2: 10y

Test how doubling the time horizon changes the outcome at the same monthly contribution.

Result: S1 $36,738. S2 $91,473. Doubling time roughly 2.5x the outcome because of compounding, not 2x.

Return rate comparison

Both $500/mo for 10 years. S1: 6%, S2: 9%

Test how a 3 percentage point difference in return changes long horizon results.

Result: S1 $82,028. S2 $97,011. The 3pp difference produces about 18% more wealth over 10 years.

Best vs worst case

$500/mo, 5y, central rate 8%, bands at 5% and 11%

See how sensitive a typical plan is to return variation.

Result: Worst case $34,003 (5%). Central $36,738 (8%). Best case $39,759 (11%). Range of roughly $5,800 on a $36k base.

Long horizon real value

$1000/mo, 30 years, 7% return, 3% inflation

Test what monthly contributions can build over a full career, in real terms.

Result: Nominal roughly $1,219,971. Real roughly $502,663 in today’s dollars. Inflation halves the purchasing power over 30 years.

Frequently asked questions

The questions users most often ask about calculator output.

Is the Investment Return Simulator free?

Yes. Free to use, no signup. Your inputs are not stored or shared.

What return rate should I use?

Match to portfolio mix: 6 to 8% for equity heavy, 5 to 6% for 60/40 balanced, 4 to 5% for bond heavy. Lower if you want margin of safety.

What inflation rate is realistic?

2.5 to 3% is the long run developed market average. Use higher if inflation is currently elevated, lower if recent disinflation persists.

How wide are the best/worst case bands?

The default is plus and minus three percentage points around the central return. This is a stress test, not a probability distribution.

Why is the real value so much lower than nominal?

Inflation compounds. At 3% per year, 25 years of inflation cuts purchasing power roughly in half. The longer the horizon, the bigger the gap between nominal and real.

Should I compare scenarios with different return rates?

Yes, but change one variable at a time. If you change rate AND contribution between scenarios, you cannot tell which one drove the difference.

Does this include taxes?

No. Use a gross return assumption and discount mentally for the tax efficiency of your account type.

How is this different from a compound interest calculator?

The compound interest calculator handles one detailed scenario with year by year breakdown. The simulator focuses on side by side scenario comparison.

Related calculators

Other tools for different parts of your financial picture.

Footnotes

  1. Long run S&P 500 return of approximately 10% nominal / 7% real is sourced from the NYU Stern historical equity returns dataset, Aswath Damodaran. Bond returns referenced from the same source and corroborated by FRED long run Treasury data. pages.stern.nyu.edu
  2. Inflation assumption of 2.5 to 3% reflects long run US CPI averages since 1928 per FRED. Recent periods have seen materially higher and lower inflation; check current data for your planning horizon. fred.stlouisfed.org
  3. Best and worst case bands of plus/minus 3 percentage points around the central return are a stress test convention, not a probability distribution. For a probabilistic view use a Monte Carlo retirement simulator.

Sources and methodology

The simulator uses the standard future value of annuity formula with inflation adjustment. Historical return ranges referenced from NYU Stern and Federal Reserve datasets.

  • NYU Stern School of Business, Aswath Damodaran historical equity and bond returns dataset, pages.stern.nyu.edu.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED database for historical interest rate and CPI data, fred.stlouisfed.org.
  • Vanguard, long term capital markets assumptions, vanguard.com.
  • BlackRock, capital markets assumptions, blackrock.com.
  • Australian Securities and Investments Commission, MoneySmart on investing basics, moneysmart.gov.au.

Educational use only

This calculator is provided for general educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial product advice. Projected returns are illustrative; actual results depend on market conditions, fees, taxes and personal circumstances. Consult a licensed financial adviser before relying on this for material financial decisions.

What this calculator does not do

  • It does not model sequence of returns risk or run Monte Carlo simulations.
  • It assumes constant return rates within each scenario.
  • It does not account for tax or fees.
  • It uses a single inflation rate across the horizon.
  • Best and worst case bands are illustrative, not probabilistic.
  • It does not adjust for changes in contribution capacity over time.

Know the math. Use it with confidence.

This calculator gives you the number. Our free courses teach you the why behind the math, the assumptions to question, and how to apply it to your own portfolio.

  • Plain English explanations from a CPA and university lecturer
  • Worked case studies using real index data
  • Quizzes and downloadable worksheets
Start the free course
Free signup. No credit card required.

Simulate two investment scenarios

Enter contribution, return, inflation and period for two scenarios. Compare nominal and real outcomes side by side.

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